I don’t have mod_security on. The only way I managed to “fix” the problem was to export my posts from my old install, create a fresh install, and import my old posts (6 years worth – ouch) into it.
It still required a bit of tinkering with the database, so I wouldn’t advise that for anyone who isn’t 100% sure of what they’re doing.
No, changing permissions does not work. That was the first thing I tried.
Other admin pages work just fine (for me); it’s only the options that link to options.php that give the 403 error.