I had a similar weird problem with one post that showed a count of 4 comments even though I had deleted them a long time ago (and were no longer in the database at all).
I was only able to fix it by adding a new comment to that post (then deleting it).
So try posting a new comment to the post the moderated comments were added to (if you can remember). That might reset the counters for you.
Are you running any plugins for comments?
I had been. I think it may have been IntenseDebate that messed things up. I uninstalled it though.
Have you tried:
– deactivating all plugins to see if this resolves the problem? If this works, re-activate the plugins one by one until you find the problematic plugin(s).
– switching to the Twenty Ten theme to rule out any theme-specific problems?
– resetting the plugins folder by FTP or phpMyAdmin? Sometimes, an apparently inactive plugin can still cause problems.
– re-uploading the wp-admin and wp-includes folders from a fresh download of WordPress?
– repairing your database?
I found and deleted the missing comments in phpMyAdmin. Thanks!