upgrade sequence

I’m upgrading from 2.0.2 to WP2.3 – which means that I must change my theme, which is incompatible with 2.3. I’m changing hosts, too, so I can build the new site without worrying about the impact on the old site. What is the best sequence of moving – should I install 2.0.2 at the new host, put the new theme up, move the data, then reconfigure the theme? Do I move the database before the theme? Should I set up the new host to emulate the old site (2.0.2 & old theme, data) before I try upgrading the theme, then upgrade to 2.3?

Any help would be appreciated.