Creating a diff was my first task, but its contents puzzled me. The patch file itself was 5 MB, so visual scanning was daunting even there. Many entries seemed to be duplicated with odd spacing and diacriticals (encoding issue? corrupt file?). My export this morning resulted in a 4.4 MB file. A diff between it and the previous 4.4 MB export yields what one would expect.
As to plug-ins, I did switch recently from WordPress Stats to Jetpack (with only the Stats module enabled).
Again, my question was about possible causes. The large discrepancy in size is what led me to dig into the files; I am concerned that something similar may have happened but without the ballooning, potentially silently leaving me--and surely thousands of others, if there is an issue--with invalid backup files.