It seems that wordpress.com is just inaccessible from certain IP's. I've worked on it this off and on for the last several days and it seems that the api base address - jetpack.wordpress.com/jetpack is just plain inaccessible.
If I export the site to my local dev server it works fine, but from my production vps at hostgator it won't connect.
A simpler test is to just try to open the jetpack page... lynx https://jetpack.wordpress.com/jetpack. Again it works fine from my dev server or workstation, but not from my production server.
I tapped hostgator support and they confirmed the same thing...
"Thank you for contacting HostGator! I apologize for the inconveniences you're facing and would be more than happy to point you in the right direction. I was able to replicate your issue. It does not seem that there is a problem with lynx or anything on the server preventing it from connecting. I am able to successfully connect to google.com and other pages using lynx, but am unable to connect to wordpress.com from your server. However, I am able to connect to wordpress.com using lynx from our other servers."
I don't know if my addresses are being blocked, but I have sites on 5 different ip's on that server and none of them are working.
I still don't have an answer, but hopefully that will help someone along.