I guess I'm not the only one whodoes this.
I was messing with my permalinks, changed the site url, and promptly lost access to my blog.
First I tried creating an .htaccess file - I hope I didn't overwrite an existing one, but that is a possibility since my invisible files aren't showing up in my FTP program despite settings to enable that.
Then I tried resetting home and site URL in MyAdmin. When that failed, I tried the "quick and easy" method of adding the old URLs to the functions.php file in my theme directory. Nope. Nada.
I've cleared my cache 1,001 times, tried different browsers, etc.
I made sure not to have trailing backslashes in my URLs...
So it really looks like I've exhausted all the advice I could find.
UPDATE: I just checked my error log, and it seems like it's definitely a problem with the htaccess file; I misinterpreted advice to set permissions to 660 (recommended for the long term I guess). So I was getting "unable to check htaccess file, ensure it is readable".
Changed permissions, everything is fine.
I'm posting this anyway, marked as resolved, just in case anyone else is ever as uniquely idiotic as I was this morning.